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Tungsten -- May you forge ahead and enjoy the flowers on both sides
Release time:
2019-12-17
The total quantity control index of tungsten mining issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology this year is 105000 tons (65% tungsten trioxide content), of which the main mining index is 78150 tons, and the comprehensive utilization index is 26850 tons. From the point of view of this index, the current tungsten mining is not restricted by this index. Large enterprises may stop production according to the index plan, but the binding force of small mines may not be high. The recent notice of tungsten mine production restriction and over-mining punishment issued by Anhui Province can be seen throughout the country's tungsten resource concentration areas, There is no official statistics on the mining volume of Anhui tungsten mines this year, so the output of tungsten mines may still be over-mined. As of October, the import volume of tungsten mines was 2371 tons, which was about 50% lower than that of last year, but this import volume should not be underestimated in this year's market.
The total quantity control index of tungsten mining issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology this year is 105000 tons (65% tungsten trioxide content), of which the main mining index is 78150 tons, and the comprehensive utilization index is 26850 tons. From the point of view of this index, the current tungsten mining is not restricted by this index. Large enterprises may stop production according to the index plan, but the binding force of small mines may not be high. The recent notice of tungsten mine production restriction and over-mining punishment issued by Anhui Province can be seen throughout the country's tungsten resource concentration areas, There is no official statistics on the mining volume of Anhui tungsten mines this year, so the output of tungsten mines may still be over-mined. As of October, the import volume of tungsten mines was 2371 tons, which was about 50% lower than that of last year, but this import volume should not be underestimated in this year's market.
Having said the quantity of tungsten ore, let's say that the ore price is rising:
The overall performance of the tungsten market in the near future has been calm, and the procurement of the stocking enterprises has also been prepared in the early stage. The ore price has generally reached the price level of more than 87000 yuan/ton (about 60 degrees of tungsten ore) in the middle and late stages of the week, and the exploration mood of the mining enterprises has not decreased. The price of tungsten ore at about 55 degrees of tungsten ore is generally between 86-8000 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than the previous 85000 yuan/ton. Similarly, the price of APT also remains above the price of 135000 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous price on the left (measured by 135000 yuan), it is now on the right. The strong price of tungsten ore has led to a lot of losses in the signing price of smelting enterprises, and the current price level of 135-13600 yuan/ton has become a relatively common signing price (cash transaction decreased by about 1000 yuan). Of course, in addition to the consideration of stock preparation, most of the transactions in the current market are just needed, so the overall feeling of the market is weak. So far, the price has been slightly higher, which means that it will fall to the ground compared with the previous price.
Recently, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the PPI in November changed from rising to falling, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, mainly due to the downward trend of chemical, black, non-ferrous and coal mining and washing. At the just concluded meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it affirmed that the current international unilateralism and trade protectionism are intensifying, the world economic and trade growth is slowing, the domestic economic results are contradictory, and the downward pressure on the economy is large. It also proposed that China should continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform, strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment, and promote the economy to maintain stability--- The counter-cyclical regulation and control of capital construction will exert force, and the real estate completion cycle will continue to drive the construction and installation investment. At the same time, the automobile industry association announced that the current production and sales data of China's automobile industry is still declining, but the decline is gradually narrowing. On the one hand, it reflects that the automobile enterprises are starting to replenish the inventory after reducing the inventory level, and the production is gradually recovering. On the other hand, it also reflects that the confidence of the automobile enterprises in the market is also recovering. Under the current economic situation, the increase of alloy demand still needs a process, and the inventory consumption of alloy enterprises still needs time, but they should also maintain a positive attitude towards the future. The tungsten powder market is weak and stable, and the powder price is mostly in the range of 206-210 yuan/kg. The market demand has not improved significantly at present. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the purchase and stock plan of alloy enterprises may also be put on the agenda. In addition to the consideration of logistics factors, there may be a small wave of high demand for powder in the near future.
The strong price of tungsten ore has reduced the profit margin of APT and powder. Europe and the United States have entered the Christmas and New Year holidays in succession, and the demand for internal and external market of tungsten is still heavy. The amount of funds at the end of the year is also a factor that must be considered. Whether it is cashing out to reduce the price or prudent purchasing to reserve funds, it will affect the trend of tungsten price at the end of the year. Perhaps -- stable -- is the industry's expectation.
May you forge ahead and enjoy the flowers on both sides.
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